A top crypto analyst warns that many traders are about to pay heavily for misreading the current market meltdown.
Pseudonymous trader Altcoin Psycho tells his 457,000 followers that trying to use 2018 models to predict the 2022 bottom is a flawed proposition.
“Many traders who nailed the last bottom are going to get torched trying to time this one [in my opinion]
Market dynamics of 2018 vs 2022 for risk assets are vastly different; equities correlation, QT, inflation, etc
Using the same tools to time this bottom as the last will likely not work.”
The trader says big players imploding is no longer a bottom signal like it was last time.
“The last bottom was marked by a few big names getting wiped, but equities was still in a bull market
It’s not a bottom signal anymore when a big player gets wiped out.
We’re in a macro bear market now, bottoms form on good news not bad news
This time, may in fact be different.”
Altcoin Psycho encourages followers to think about the bear market bottom as a matter of time, not price.
“I think the bottom will be a function of ‘when’ not ‘where’
‘When’ usually means slow bottom formation
‘Where’ usually means v-reversal
I struggle to think we v-reverse.
I’m not trying to time a bottom based on price, I’m waiting to actually see a positive shift on macro.”
Moving on to specific altcoins, the trader says he’s still bullish on layer-1 blockchain Cosmos (ATOM).
“I’ll either look like a genius or an idiot in a few years but I can’t stress enough how bullish I am on the cosmos ecosystem.”
Cosmos is trading for $7.77 at time of writing, up 8.4% over the last 24 hours.
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