Will Bitcoin Do Better in August Than in July? – Here’s What History Says, According to Kraken Intelligence

Kraken Intelligence is taking a look at Bitcoin’s price potential this August as the flagship cryptocurrency emerges from a turbulent three-month period.

According to the crypto exchange’s new report, Bitcoin performed fairly well in July, rewarding holders with +18% returns, which is above the month’s historical average return of 11%.


August is typically not a high-performing month for Bitcoin, reports Kraken.

“August is the second-worst performing month on record with an average and median monthly return of 2% and -7%, respectively. As a matter of fact, since 2011, August has outperformed July on only three occasions.”

Source: Kraken Intelligence

Kraken also looks at BTC’s historical third-quarter numbers, noting that Bitcoin’s performance during Q3 has been all over the map in past years. Kraken says that historical precedence might not be a reliable indicator in this case.

The crypto exchange says that Bitcoin’s volatility has been slightly down as of late, and it could drift lower heading into the rest of the month.

“With Bitcoin’s 30D rolling volatility (76.5%) fast approaching its 345D rolling volatility (73.1%) and volatility remaining in what looks to be an uptrend, one could expect volatility to drift slightly lower into August before eventually rebounding in the week(s)/month(s) that follow. In sum, history suggests volatility is on the horizon.”

Source: Kraken Intelligence

The crypto exchange also includes whale activity in its report. Kraken says that the “cohort” of whales who hold 1,000 BTC or more began accumulating BTC again in July after dropping 30,000 BTC in June.

The quantity of BTC in whale wallets rose sharply after Bitcoin bounced from $30,000 on July 20th, reports Kraken.

“The ongoing accumulation tells us that this cohort sees upside from the current price, and BTC’s immediately available market supply is falling.”

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