Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is forecasting Ethereum (ETH) will dip a lot lower before its next bull market.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 784,000 YouTube subscribers that before Ethereum goes on a bull run the smart contract platform will likely retest lows within the upper and lower bounds of the logarithmic regression chart.
“The idea is that Ethereum goes on these nice runs every once in a while, but it tends to touch base at home base in between these bull runs. And we have just been sitting outside of this level for a long time. To some degree, it feels like Ethereum is just teasing, in one sense, how it sits just outside of the lower regression trendline.”
Cowen says Ethereum could drop at least 53% from its current value. Ethereum is trading for $1,626 at time of writing.
“Now, one thing I want to draw your attention to as we talk about what is the fair value fit to ‘non-bubble data’ and arguably it’s this level right here that is currently at $750, which might cause you to raise an eyebrow and say, Well, wait a second, that’s lower than where we went in June. And I still am of the opinion that Ethereum could go lower than where it went back in June.”
Cowen also warns that a recession could bring new lows to the crypto markets, no matter how long the markets have already remained bearish.
“The biggest thing that is being discounted by a lot of people is the idea that there will not be any sustained further move to the downside in risk assets just simply because of a certain amount of time that’s gone by. But I will remind you that there are plenty of assets, even in crypto, that can put in new lows even well after your primary bear market year.
You think back to 2020, a lot of cryptocurrencies put in new lows. I don’t believe Ethereum was one of them. But it actually did come pretty close. It was sort of like a double bottom.”
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