BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes says that Ethereum’s (ETH) upcoming merge to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism will boost its price.
In a new blog post, Hayes says that he envisions Ethereum’s price rising after its upgrade despite unfriendly US dollar (USD) liquidity conditions.
According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve can continue to fight inflation via raising interest rates without hurting the markets as long as the USD Liquidity Conditions Index also rises, a metric he created himself that tends to correlate with Bitcoin (BTC).
“If the quantity of money has a greater effect than its price on financial markets, then the Fed can raise interest rates all it wants without hurting the market – so long as the USD Liquidity Conditions Index also rises.”
Hayes’ USD Liquidity Conditions Index is measured by subtracting the total amount of reverse repo bids by the New York Federal Reserve as well as US Treasury general account balance held at the NY Fed from the Fed’s total balance sheet.
However, Hayes says that rocky macroeconomic conditions aren’t fazing his belief in the leading smart contract platform but notes that the price action may be smaller than he expected.
“Most cryptos cannot outperform the market in USD terms on an absolute basis when Bitcoin is getting clubbed. However, my confidence in the positive near-term price performance of Ether is due entirely to the expected impact of the impending Merge…
I think the Merge will drive positive price movement for ETH regardless of USD liquidity conditions.
I still believe that the positive price impact of a severe reduction in ETH emissions and the positive reflexivity between the price/network activity/network usage would overcome any situation in which USD Liquidity Conditions are tightening – it’s just that the price movement might be weaker than I forecasted or hoped for.”
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